Cheltenham Festival 2013 - Free Tips
Free horse racing tips for Cheltenham Festival 2013 will appear on this site via the selections tab on the left hand margin. Generally they will be posted the evening before the racing unless otherwise stated.
This page shows the statistical/trending approach that I will be taking for this years Festival. The actual selections will be posted at the time via the selections area of the site. These stats are put up here in advance to help you with any ante post selections you may be considering.
Whilst there is a wealth of statistics and trends going back many years the difficulty is in working out how relevant some of the older ones are, and as a result I tend to work now on a maximum of 10 years, apart from races where the older longer trend lines still seem to work OK.
A very tough day ahead with the stats not offering many key angles. You get some days like this where many races have multiple selections and it is nigh on impossible to narrow it down to an easy bet, other days we get plenty of single selections and can have a much stronger performance. The important thing is to keep our discipline and try to get through the day safely from a perspective of the betting bank - hence the heavier presence of EW bets.
Points values here are whatever you normally use rather than the portfolio pts value. Or divide your total stake for the day by the total number of points which for today is 19
Cheltenham Day 2 - Ladies Day
Wednesday March 13th -2013
Race 1 13:30 National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup - (10/199). - A problematic race at first glance of the statistics, most of them are strong with one outlier. On investigation there appears to be three different horses that break various stats, the most predominant one seems to be Tricky Trickster from 2011 and so I am working a few stats where this one is the exception, and we will work on the basis that these filters will work 9 times in every 10 years. Odds: You want a horse that starts below 50-1 or you are 0/48. Experience: This seems key with horses that had less than 10 previous runs being only 1/76, looking deeper into this you also want a horse that has run more than 5 times on left handed courses or you are 1/83. You also want to have won in this direction or you are 0/66. LTO: It does not appear to matter what the last race was, but the race before that seems more critical with horses coming from a Beginners or Maiden being 0/49.
Only one selection on the shortlist here and so it is a straightforward case of it being the one to follow, usually the sole picks are strong performers over the long term.:-
- Tofino Bay 9-1 ToteSport BOG 2pts Win
Race 2 14:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle - (10/161) - No huge stand-out trends for this race, but quite a few medium strength ones that combine quite well. Age: You want a horse aged 5 or 6 or you are 0/37. Odds: Horses that start above 20-1 are poor at 0/82. Strike Rates: Horses with a Win SR below 25% are 0/40. You also want a horse with proven form over hurdles, horses with a hurdle place SR below 65% are 0/44. Horse and Jockey combination: Horses that have not previously won under the Jockey are 0/53. Ideally you also want a place SR with this Jockey above 60% or you are 0/62. LTO: Looking at the last race you want to have finished in the frame or you are 0/31. Last Winning Run: Ideally you want to have had your last win within 26-150 days or you are 0/38.
This year this is just one of those races where most of the runners (7 out of the 10) fit the trends and make it impossible to narrow it down further without back fitting the stats. Sizing Gold we can eliminate on price which leaves 6. Rule the World is of interest as it is also a pick by my Portfolio system, but without any success over this trip or further I am not keen on that one here. The same can also be said for Chatterbox and Puffin Billy (if it runs) too. Pont Alexandre is obviously the one to beat and the price of 6-4 reflects that, he does not have many chinks in his armour but I would be worried about him trying this trip for the first time, and so at that price I am gong to swerve him too. After all of that I am left to decide between Taquin Du Seuil and Two Rockers who I find very hard to split. Ultimately the fact that there are so many qualifiers shows how competitive this race is and that there is no real angle that the stats can provide to this race and so I am going a small EW bet on Two Rockers.:-
- Two Rockers (IRE) 16-1 B365 BOG 1pt EW.
Race 3 14:40 RSA Chase - (10/116). - A nice race to profile that gave us the winner last year. The main focus is on the last three runs, its all in the preparation. LTO: You want to have had a top two finish LTO or you are 0/40, this race needs to have taken place between 21 and 60 days ago or you are 0/36. 2LTO: In this race you want to have had a top 3 finish or you are 0/23 and the race should have been between 40 and 120 days ago or you are 0/28. 3LTO: Here you want a top 4 finish or you are 0/23 and the run should have been between 76 and 150 days ago or you are 0/32. None of the stats are really stand out, but between them they work very well to profile the right sort to win this race.
Just two on the shortlist here Unioniste and Vintage Star. Vintage Star is a huge price, and whilst most selections at this price run badly, you do not get big priced winners if you never back them. Longer term members of this site will be aware of this with previous 50-1 and 40-1 winners and so we should not be annoyed if they run badly just very pleased if they get a return for us. Unioniste should still be considered the main bet for the race though.:-
- Unioniste (FR) 4-1 Stan James BOG 3pts Win
- Vintage Star (IRE) 66-1 BetVictor BOG 1pt EW
Race 4 15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - (11/109). - Another excellent race for statistical analysis and probably one of my most successful overall. LTO: Ideally you want a top 3 finish in this outing, there is one exception and that horse unseated, but if you completed the race I would go for 1-2-3 LTO or you are 1/38. This race needs to have taken place between 31 and 120 days ago or you are 0/28. 2LTO: A top four finish here is best with other being 0/25. Odds: Horses starting above 20-1 are 0/36.
Three on the shortlist in this race and they are Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe and Wishfull Thinking. A mean betting market dominated by Sprinter Sacre and again by Sizing Europe. Wishfull Thinking is an interesting price but with only two place paying up this race lacks any angles and appeal and so I have decided to no bet it.:-
- No Bet
Race 5 16:00 Coral Cup - (10/270).- Last years winner Son Of Flicka upset the old stats a lot but I have to work for now on it being an anomaly and leave things as they are as prior to last years result things had been pretty steady with the statistics. Odds: Horses starting above 50-1 are 0/66. OR: When compared to the starting Bottom OR ranked horse selections that were not within the 1-19 "more than" band were 0/60. Last race you need to have raced off a mark between 117 and 145 or you are 0/51. Distance Winners: Oddly you do not want a horse that had won at the distance previously or you are 0/49. LTO: Horses that came from a Novice race LTO are 0/40. LWR: Your last winning run should have been between 16 and 120 days before, otherwise you are 1/155.
Again we are faced with a handful of qualifiers and so we have to work down from the following five Abbey Lane, Master of the Sea, Medinas, Mr Watson and Un Beau Matin. All of these pass the odds test, two however are also picked by my other Portfolio systems and they are Master of the Sea and Mr Watson the latter I can discount as it has not proven itself over at least this distance. There really is not much to split the rest and so I go with just the one selection and take advantage of the extra places on offer with a lot of the bookies for this race.:-
- Master Of The Sea (IRE) 14-1 Paddy Power BOG 1pt EW
Race 6 16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle - (8/187). - The 2009 winner Silk Affair continues to be the anomaly for this race, and so I am ignoring that result for now, where you see the stats stating that one horse in the sample did win on each occasion it was Silk Affair. Odds: Horses that have started this race above 40-1 are 0/47. Last Won: You need to have won within the last 10 races or you are 0/26. 12M runs: 1-10 runs in the last year is best or you are 1/42. Jockey: A bit of a puzzle these stats, but they are strong. You either want a Jockey riding the horse for the first or second time only. Horses starting this race with a Jockey that has ridden them two or more times are 1/103. Over the last 12months the Jockey also needs to have achieved a win strike rate above 10% or you are 0/64. LTO: Weight should be between 10-5 and 11-3 or you are 0/64. This last run needs to have taken place between 3 and 45 days ago or you are 0/40. It appears that it is best that this previous race has not yielded any subsequent winners. Horses starting this race in which a horse from their previous race has already won are 0/62. It is hard to fathom this out, but the stat looks fairly strong so we shall go with it.
Three on the shortlist here and with the odds stages against the over 40-1's I am going to leave out one of them which is Angelot Du Berlais which is currently at 66-1. The other two we both go with, but both EW again as we try to plot a course through these difficult races and big fields.:-
- Ptit Zig (FR) 14-1 Coral BOG 1pt EW.
- Zamdy Man 25-1 B365 BOG 1pt EW.
Race 7 17:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper - (10/235). - A race I always struggle with due to the relative short race history of the runners in it. Previously my shortlist has been too big and picking even a selection has been too hard, but I am going to have a different tilt at it this year. Odds: Horses starting above 40-1 are 0/69. OR: A puzzling stat here that does not come in to play every year. When comparing the OR of the winning selection against the average OR for all of the starters in the race then you want to be at least equal to the average if not you must be above it, runners falling below the average OR are 0/56. NHF Win SR: We are looking for a win SR above 35% or you are 0/50. Your last win also should not have been a shock, horses that last won at odds above 13/2 are 0/47. Jockey Form: You want a Jockey with a 30day win SR above 5% (or you are 0/44), looking at the places you want a 14 day place SR of above 20% (0/61) and a 30 day place Strike rate above 25% (0/67).
Only two on the shortlist here, which is a surprise for this race and a sign of the new approach I have taken with the stats. Again with my poor record in the race I have to be slightly cautious, but lets hope we can finish the day off with a bang! Note that Vieux Lion Rouge is available at 33-1 also, but be careful some of these bookies are not offering the fourth place. Boyles are, but they do not allow me to bet with them and so I have had to post of bets that I am able to place myself.:-
- Golantilla (IRE) 9-1 Paddy Power BOG 2pt Win
- Vieux Lion Rouge 25-1 B365 BOG 1pt EW